Today is the penultimate day of the monthly expiry and we have 2 more days for the financial year to end. You can expect these 2 days to be volatile as many will be looking ahead to book profit and losses so that the tax related stuff fall in place.
Now the bulls are getting trapped. Markets are going higher and higher. We need to wait for April to see if the FII buying in the last week is due to tax adjustment or are they really buying?? They have been selling from last 3 months and in last 10 days there has been some buying. April series will give a clear picture, at least the first week.
Now Russia and Ukraine have started talking and things might improve on that front. Oil is already showing signs of improvement and is crashing. The same with gold as well.
The reason why the US fed did not hike rates aggressively was due to this Russia-Ukraine issue. Now if that is out, then FED will concentrate on controlling inflation by taking aggressive steps which may or may not be in the favor of the market. So don't be overjoyed that the war is over.
The yield curve is also flattening which means that the inflation problem may not be a major issue.
Yesterday, hero moto fell more than 7% as IT dept told that they have shown 1000cr of bogus expenses. This is the problem when you are trading in stock options. You never know when this kind of news comes. That's why I usually sell PE only when I have the capacity to take delivery and will sell CE when I have the stocks to give delivery.
Now banks are participating in the upmove. Banks have been beaten a lot. It is necessary for the banks to play a major role if recovery has to come.
MY TRADES
- I have sold deep OTM PE in icici, hdfc bank with the intention of taking delivery.
- I am carrying huge number short strangles for tomo and most of them are safe. Lets see what will happen to markets today. If I am not comfortable, then I will cut some in loss.
- I had take a trade for april expiry. I am already sitting with a profit of 1%
- US markets shot up after some relief in the Russia- Ukaraine issue. Dow shot up almost 300 points.
- Europe also closed in the green.
- Today morning the Asian markets are mixed. Japan is down but China is in the green. SGX is suggesting a 150 point gapup.
- We need to see if the gap will be sustained in the first hour or not. We will be opening at the resistance level. Will we have a breakout?
- Crude is at $111. It has fallen but still higher for India. It should be within 80 or 90 so that we are in comfortable zone.
- $ is at $75.5
- FII were flat. However DII bought aggressively.
- As I told, don't conclude anything based on institution activity in the last week of the financial year. It may be a trap
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