Trade setup for 20th April

 Yesterday was a day when the markets just collapsed in the second half. There was a huge basket selling that happened. Nifty fell close to 300 points from its high and banknifty fell close to 1000 points. There was not much trigger for this. The international markets did not react so badly. We are not sure why there was such a sudden collapse.

Some say that the collapse was due to Russia-Ukraine tension which got escalated again. If that was the case then the international markets should have collapsed and crude should have shot. In fact, crude fell by 5% and natural gas by 10%.

Some other news sources say that the war is getting resolved. If that was the case then why did the markets fall?? In this market, logic never works. 

The major contributors for the fall were banks, IT, and FMCG. HDFC twins led the fall. IT added fuel to the falling market. Suddenly, there was a massive sale in the FMCG as well. ITC which was well in the green fell close to 3%. The only support came from RIL. If it was not for RIL, we would have probably fallen 500 points.

Now nifty has broken all the support. 17000 gone, 50DMA gone, 200 DMA gone. Usually when this kind of support is broken then recovery is slightly difficult. We may head lower and every rise should be used to sell into this market unless the 200 and 50 dma is taken out. Now, these will be strong support. Today's move will be very important.

Even banknifty closed below the 200dma and 50 dma. Definitely not a good sign for the markets.

FII selling has resumed and it looks like they are not going to stop anytime soon. I will be buying shares only when they start buying. Till then, fresh investment is a big no. I am sitting with cash and will be doing only trading till then. Looks like inflation is hitting the economy hard. Winter is coming(game of thrones)

Now Twitter has taken steps where Elon musk will not be able to raise his stake beyond 15%. We need to see how Elon musk will tackle this.

Netflix came out with results and for the first time, the subscriber count has gone down. The results came after market hours and now the share is down by 25%. Last quarter it fell close to 19%. Today night when US markets open, they will be in the red. So, obviously, Nasdaq will be in red.

Looks like, this earning season will be a challenge to justify the valuation. All the companies which have come out with numbers till now have fallen. Today you have ACC numbers. Let's see what will happen. Mindtree fell close to 10% after the numbers.


  • I had some shorts in the system. Yesterday I was forced to cut some of them and I went shot aggressively. My timing was right and I did not get into much loss.
  • I have sold 17200,300,400 and 500 ce aggressively in the monthly expiry. I will close some today if the closing is above 17k
  • We have HCLTECh results in some days, I have taken a mild bullish trade with the hope that hcl will change the destiny of the markets. Just a hope
    • +2 X 1100ce
    • -1 X 1180ce
    • -3X 1160ce    Downside, there is no problem. If HCL shoots up a lot then I will have  a problem and may have to do an adjustment
  • Today I will be selling HDFC and HDFCbank PE. I will take delivery if it becomes ITM
  1. Yesterday, dow shot up 500 points. Nasdaq shot up 2%. But today they will fall as netflix aftermarket is down 25%
  2. Europe closed in the flat 
  3. Today the world markets and US futures are in the red.
  4. SGX is suggesting a +ve start. Lets see if that will be sustained or not.
  1. Crude fell 5% yesterday and shot up 1% in the night. Now crude is at $107
  2. $ is at Rs 76
  1. FII sold for 6000+cr and DII bought for only 3000+cr