Yesterday there was a fantastic run in the US market. Dow shot up more than 600 points. So can we believe that the bottom has been formed? The S&P touched a 20% fall from its high and from there it has seen a huge bounce. In bear markets, the recovery will be sharp which can trap long positions. So I would wait for this week to see if S&P goes to a bear market again. The reason why I am tracking US markets is that our Indian markets simply replicate the US markets.
Now Ukraine's war is not making much noise. Now it is Taiwan. Joe Biden has issued a statement telling that they won't be quiet if China attacks Taiwan. So this has intensified the situation. But China has not told anything or done anything. This is the problem. When people are barking, you can be sure that nothing will happen. It is the silence that one should be careful of.
Yesterday we shot up and we were trading well in the green. At 2PM, the sellers came and markets fell we closed in the red. This is the expiry week. So volatility is expected. Banknifty shot up almost 500 points in the morning and lost everything by noon.
Yesterday it was metals that fell drastically as the tax on them has been hiked. JSW, tata steel fell more than 10%. Don't be happy and jump into this fall and buy. Historically, the fall in metals has been proved to be very deep. When the recovery happens, they recover very fast as well. Already, many of these metal companies have fallen more than 40%. Now sure how deep it can fall. Keep an eye on this sector and enter when sentiments change. When will that be?? not sure?
This new Monkey pox cases are rising in the world. Not sure if that is as serious as Covid.
The pharma companies' numbers are good but the stock prices are falling. New-age companies like Paytm numbers are bad, but the stock price is up by 8%. Yesterday zomato came out with numbers and obviously it was in loss. Let's see what will happen to the stock price.
MY TRADE
- I am almost fully invested in the market. My losses are reducing day by day as expiry is nearing. The losses are in control for now. I am confident that I can end in green unless some massive move happens. This month was a drastic month and I don't mind even ending in a minor loss.
- I will be making the fresh investment only when FII turn buyers consistently.
- US markets closed in the green. It was a trending day for the US markets. They did not show any signs of falling. But today the futures are in the red.
- Europe closed in the green.
- Today the SGX is flat. Asian markets are in red.
- Crude is at $113
- $ is at Rs 77.5
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