Ahead of the inflation data of the US, the FII selling has started which is what I had expected. Many thought that FII selling had reduced and now you can see the markets rally. As I told before, 1 day or day of stopping after selling for 3-4 months continiously is not good enough indicator to go long.
The main culprit is now the USDINR which is almost kissing Rs 80.
Euro is in parity with the USD for the first time in many decades.
The talk of the town was oil. Yesterday crude fell 7% and is now below $100 after US inventories piled up. This means the consumtion has reduced. Now the fear of recession has increased.
Dow closed in red after opening in green. Nasdaq also closed in the red
Now there is a pig fight between Elon musk and twitter. Twitter shares rallied when Elon musk offered to buy it but now he has decided not to buy and the stock is falling. Elon musk may be planning to develop his own app(thats what he tweeted). Now twitter has decided to sue him for dumping the deal and have approached the courts.
CPI data for june is at 7.01% which was almost expected. The inflation is still high. Now all eyes on US inflation and what the central banks will do.
The funny part in the last week rally was that macro data was not good, currency was not good, earning season start was not good(only tcs which has come out with numbers) but banknifty has rallied almost 2000 points. This is a situation where you are sure that the rally will not sustain but you wont get the guts to short as there might be something which we may not know or markets might be anticiparting. In these times, the best strategy is call ratio spreads. I will be doing this trade in the monthly expiry
+1 X 35100ce , -5 X 36000ce
Nifty had went above 50dma and is now at 50dma. Will there be a bounce from here or will 50dma be broken? I feel it will be broken and it might go to 20dma which is the next support.
Again, you have the inflation data in India and US coming this week and that might change the sentiments.
HCL tech numbers were in line with the expectations. So there may not be some fireworks here. They have decalred a dividend of Rs 10 per share.
Today you have mindtree aand tomo ACC numbers
Srillanka president runs to Maldivies in a army jet. The crisis there is worsening day by day.
Now that the free money of the VC's are over. Now startups and companies are concentrating on reducing hiring and increasing the profits. Yesterday, zomato told that there is no point in buring more cash now and they may become profitable in the future soon.
Google CEO told that they will reduce hiring in the coming years.
MY TRADES
- Yesterday the algo trade whcih happened gave me a profit of around 900rs. In 1 week the algo given a profit of more than 8% which is fantastic. From today, the algo will be trading in options as I have modified it. There are a lot of advantages trading in options than futures. I will be improving the algo to consider hedging as well in the future
- The weekly trades which I took are in good profit. People who took 16200 short straddle would have minted money in this week.(i have not done)
- I will be taking the below trade in monthly option
- +1 X 16100ce
- -3 X 16500ce
- US markets opened in green and went to red as infaltion data fears took over as crude fell 7%
- Europe closed in the green.
- Today the Asian markets are in the green. SGX is suggesting a +ve opening
- FII sold for 1500+cr and DII bought for just 140cr
- Crude is at $99
- $ is almost at Rs 80
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