Till Friday, it looked as if nifty would goto 19000. But now in the last 2 days it has fallen almost 500 points. Still I am not able to conclude if this is a bull market retracement or whether the rally we had till now was a bear market retracement. As a trader, we are worried more about short term than long term. So it is better to stay with the flow.
I was telling constantly in my blog that RSI above 80 is a clear short. I was sure that this rally cannot go for long. So most of my trades were on the short side and now everything is paying off.
But to be on the safer side, I did have some bullish trades which are in trouble for now. But since the quantity is small, I can manage that.
The Adani trade which I did a few days back is in wonderful profit already.
I was telling you that you need to keep an eye on the US markets as we would start falling only when they would fall. So if anyone is following technicals, then it would be good if you apply those technicals on the US markets as well because most of the time the world mirrors the US markets.
Now all eyes are on the Jackson hole meeting. All are eagerly waiting on what the FED chairman will say.
Keep an eye on the USDINR. It's almost close to 80 which is psychological support.
Seeing the data, it looks like there will be more pain for the markets and we may fall and test the 20 DMA. The best trade now would be to sell stocks that rallied in the current bull rally. The Adani group stocks, metal stocks, and banks are the ones that rallied.
Yesterday the US markets showed some signs of weakness. The next buying signal is when the US shows some sign of buying. Till then use every rally to short the markets.
Inflation in developed nations like the UK, France, etc is rising and analysts are predicting that it may rise further. No need to pay much attention to these analysts. Most of the time, they are wrong.
UAE is the first country where the govt has become paperless.
The CBOE vix has shot up 16% yesterday. Our vix is close to 19.
MY TRADES
- I will be starting youtube videos today.
- I am almost fully deployed where I did catch the fall which happened in the last 2 days. I have sold huge quantities of 19k CE in sept, oct series. I will explain this in today's video.
- Now I wait for the markets to fall so that I can enter. Shorting now is slightly risky. I will play in monthly options only as weekly option premiums are not interesting.
- The US marekts closed in the red. Dow fell close to 600 points. Zoom is forcasting that their revenue might fall in the future. Aftermarket, it is down by 9%
- Today the Asian markets are in the red. Japan, Taiwan, and Korea are all down by more than 1%
- SGX is suggesting a 80 point gap down.
- Surprisingly there was not much selling by the institution yesterday.
- FII sold for only 450cr and DII sold for only 85cr
- So yesterday's fall was not due to selling. It was more due to not buying. So dont expect market to fall too much. I won't be surprised if there is a pullback sometime today or tomorrow.
- Crude is at $97
- $ is at a kissing distance from Rs 80.
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