Trade setup for 16th Feb

 Finally, the nifty crossed and closed 18k. I expected this. But now we need to see if there will be a follow-through today. Today if nifty closes above 18100 then the probability of nifty going close to 18500 by this monthly expiry will be high. 

But as a trader, if you are bullish, I would suggest you take off some profit on today's gap up as today is expiry and I am expecting some volatile expiry.

Seeing the markets worldwide it looks like the bottom is formed and the markets might go higher from here. All the negative impact of Adani, inflation, rate hike seems to be left back. You can see that in the vix. It is almost close to 13.

It looks like Adani saga is over or at least the peak moment is over. One can easily sell some deep OTM pe in the march and feb series. I have already done this. I wont be surprised if it goes above 2k very soon.

I hope you guys remember the kotak trade which I took at the start of the month. Its nw in wonderful profit. I had even done a youtube video on that.

I thought aviation sector is an interesting sector for now and was thinking of adding some top players to my portfolio. Now, indigo promoters are offloading their stake. Again I have become skeptical. I will wait for some time and invest in this sector.


  1. My algo gave a decent profit yesterday as well. It gained almost 1%. For the month it is in loss of 3% now.
  2. For today's expiry, I had sold huge quantity of 18000ce. It looks like I  should be running for cover at open.
  3. In the monthly expiry, I have a huge bullish position which will be in decent profit.
  4. For today's expiry,  I will be selling huge quantity of 18000,17950 and 17900pe to counter my 18kce
  1. The US markets closed flat. The techs gained so the nasdaq gained significantly.
  2. Europe closed in the green.
  3. Today the Asian markets are in the green. Hongkong is up by 2%. SGX is up by 90 points.
  4. It looks like the expiry will be challenging all the 18100 ce as well
  1. Both FII and DII are competing to buy in Indian markets. FII are now paying high price for leaving India and coming back now.
  2. FII bought for 400cr and DII bought for 500cr
  3. But for the month they are still in the red. In last 4-5 days they have been consecutive buyers. I hope they continue this for march as well.
  1. Crude is close to $86
  2. USDINR is Rs 82.7. Today it should go close to 82. Keep an eye on this. Going above 83 may trigger selling.