Trade setup for 17th April



Today you have RCB vs CSK. A high intensity match. Lets see. I am confident of RCB, if luck favours. 

Coming to markets, today infy and hdfcbank numbers will play. Infy will open in red as the result was not good and ADR has fallen 11%. If Infosys falls 10% then that will take nifty by almost 100 points due to its weightage. We need to see how other IT like tcs, hcl will trade due to the sectorial sentiment.

HDFC bank numbers are confusing. Some are saying it's good. Some are saying it's bad. Let's see what will happen after it opens. I feel that since IT will not perform today. In order to manage index, banks may outperform. I am not good at decoding earnings data and decide the stock movement after that. In fact, I don't know anyone who is good at this. Whoever claims that they are good are not consistent.

On Thursday, I expected markets to fall as it was a long weekend and markets had rallied a lot in that last few trading sessions. But, I was wrong. Markets rallied higher and closed in the green. Nifty has closed in the green for last 9 sessions. In this financial year it has not closed in red. Today will be the first day it might close in red(at least for now, as per SGX).

This is not a time to short. This is the time to accumulate. Not immediately though. Now markets may goto sideways direction. As I told before, I wont be surprised if it goes beyond 18k in this month. We have major companies coming out with numbers in the coming days. Ril, ICICI, bajfin are coming out with numbers in this month.

Very soon we have numbers from major banks in the US as well. We need to see how they have performed as there is a banking crisis in the US. Even slight hope will take US markets higher and eventually will take Indian markets higher.

Risky players can buy 18000ce today for the monthly series. Keep 100-200 points in the spot as SL. I am not doing this trade as it does not suit my trading style.

Over the long weekend many things happened on the political side as well. Atiq ahmed who was an ex mla and a gangster was killed when in police custody and in front of media.


MY TRADES

  1. I am planning to buy 1 lot of 18000ce in the monthly expiry. Not sure whether I will do this.
  2. I will be executing the below trade for month
    1. +1 X 17500pe
    2. -3 X 17300pe
    3. -3 X 17200pe
    4. -5 X 17000pe
  3. I will be executing the below in banknifty
    1. +1 X 42500ce
    2. -10 X 43000ce
  4. I will sell some deep OTM PE of infy and will take delivery if it falls further. I have always done this in infy and it has always rewarded me. I sold when they had visa issue, whistleblower issue, when vishal sikka left etc. During all these time, it fell close to 10% and recovered swiftly. Even this fall will recover in some months.
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
  1. US markets closed in the red on friday.
  2. Today the futures are in the mild green.
  3. SGX is suggesting a fall of 100 points.
  4. Today the Asian markets are mixed. Hongkong is down by 0.5%
FII AND DII
  1. FII bought for 200+cr and DII sold for 270+cr
CRUDE AND $
  1. Crude at $86 and is rising as opec is cutting productions and china consumptions is rising.
  2. $ below Rs 82. Keep and eye on this as this gives a better picture.

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